Monday, September 20, 2010

The Recession Ended in June 2009

   According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the recession that began in December 2007 came to a conclusion in June 2009. The recession lasted 18 months which made it the lengthiest economic pullback in the United States since World War II. Although the recession's over, its effects and influences are still hanging over the economy as evidenced by the high unemployment rate, lackluster real estate market, and the rising stock market.

   "What? What did you say about the stock market," cried someone from the crowd. Well, it's true. The market's been on a tear since the summer of 2009 and it's going to go higher. It's like the market knew exactly when the recession had ended and started to kick itself into first gear, second gear, and soon third gear.

   It's too bad then that the average citizen is too scared of the market to put big money into mutual funds or ETFs. The beneficiaries of the coming stock market boom will be the rich, the rich, and the rich. Joe Sixpack is too busy trying to mine 1% interest from a money market fund or a bond fund to step into the market anytime soon. In my opinion, by the time Joe Sixpack steps back into the market, he'll be paying top notch prices and the newspapers will be crowing about how to get rich in the market. Maybe there'll be another book about DOW 30,000 and how it's different this time. That's when I get bearish and bet accordingly. Until then however, the market is swinging higher... without Joe Sixpack on board.

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