Thursday, September 23, 2010

Housing Still in "Bottoming Process" But Worst Is Over, Zillow's Humphries Says

   Who knew a real estate website like Zillow needed a "Chief Economist" on the payroll? What does a Chief Economist on a website do? I guess he appears on Yahoo's Tech Ticker to talk about the state of the housing market. According to Stan Humphries:

"Homeowners remain torn about the prospects of the market. "Homeowners are in flux right now in terms of what their expectations are," Humphries says, referring to Zillow's homeowner sentiment survey. "A lot of them believe we're in a bottoming process, but a fair number do believe the bottom still lays ahead." 

   I've never believed in the intelligence of crowds. I've always bet against the crowd but when it comes to the housing market here and now, I have to side with the bearish masses. It's only common sense in light of the conspiracy of factors that have smacked housing down for the count. Humphries says that a lot of homeowners believe the bottoming process is ongoing so I'd say YEA to that. Also from the Humphries interview:

   "While Zillow foresees the housing market finally bottoming toward the end of 2010, it isn't projecting large gains. Factors such as the large foreclosure pipeline, high levels of negative equity, and the sideline sellers "will constrain the amount of appreciation we'll see over the next few years."

  
This is on target and fits with my views. The only thing I'd amend would be the last line to "will constrain the amount of appreciation we'll see over the next decade." Don't want to get anyone's hopes up.

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