Economists see 'sub-par' growth ahead - CNN

http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/22/news/economy/NABE_November_economic_outlook/index.htm?hpt=T2

   The economy will remain sluggish early next year as the lingering effects of the recession continue to drag on growth and the benefit of government stimulus fades, a panel of professional forecasters said Monday. In its November outlook, the National Association for Business Economics predicts that the U.S. economy will grow 2.7% this year. That's a slight improvement from the October survey, but is a far cry from the 3.2% rate the survey had projected in May.

   You know what a "professional forecaster" is? A dumbass. Imagine your job title is "professional forecaster" and your job is to attempt to look into the future by using past and current data/trends to divine what's going to happen. Now imagine that you're wrong most of the time and yet you still have a job? You're not only a dumbass but a lucky dumbass. Despite all the folly associated with forecasters, they serve a necessary purpose in society - they provide headlines and crunch data which is meaningless.

   Now, you're probably thinking, how does crunching meaningless data serve a purpose in society? Meaningless data holds meaning for the uneducated, the headline glancers, and the masses. You ever hear on the radio that a study somewhere recommended drinking at least one cup of coffee a day? Most people listen to that and think coffee is good and drink it. They never follow up on the study, research the study themselves, or look into it further. The masses receive their information in snippets and headlines and data points. Meaningless data serves to bend opinion and color perspective - so, even if the data is completely wrong and irrational, it has served its purpose if it reaches enough people and affects their thinking.

   My forecast? Economy's going to be booming. Growth is going to be blazing. Good times are ahead but the "professional forecasters" could never see what I see because they're unable to break free from the dogma and reams of useless data that have leashed them to the hydrant marked "Dumbass."

US Federal Reserve announces $600b stimulus

The economy's naturally and organically growing by itself. It'll be a roaring river in another couple of years because it's going to recover by itself. Why does the FED feel the need to inject another $600B stimulus into the banking system? It's can't for the purpose that they've stated. I know but I'm not telling. Boo.

Resource Based Economy AND EXAMPLE OF IGNORANCE

   I don't advocate what she says but her voice helped me sleep while I was at the office.

Foreclosure activity up across most US metro areas

   From an AP article today:

LOS ANGELES (AP) -- The foreclosure crisis intensified across a majority of large U.S. metropolitan areas this summer, with Chicago and Seattle -- cities outside of the states that have shouldered the worst of the housing downturn -- seeing a sharp increase in foreclosure warnings.

California, Nevada, Florida and Arizona remain the nation's foreclosure hotbeds, accounting for 19 of the top 20 metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates between July and September, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

Those states saw housing values surge during the housing boom years. When the boom ended, values collapsed and foreclosures soared.

   I feel like I'm beating a dead horse when I state that the "foreclosure crisis" won't be over for at least another 5 years and recovery in the real estate market won't arrive until 2018-2019. I know that seems like a long time but this is how financial crises work. They take time and they burn up huge amounts of wealth before they're contained. While the foreclosure crisis is resolving itself over the next few years, the economy will continue to get stronger and the stock market's going to go ballistic. The seeds of the next boom have already been planted and all it's going to take is time. Most people don't have the patience to wait nearly a decade for all this to happen but my advice is to continue working at your job (if you have one), invest monthly, take care of your family, and watch for the boom to happen right before your eyes.

How the Foreclosure Fiasco Threatens the Economy

^^ Another doom and gloom article, this time from US News and World Report. The first paragraph starts like so:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/How-the-Foreclosure-Fiasco-usnews-610419413.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
It might seem like a respite for struggling homeowners, but the sudden snags and slowdowns in thousands of foreclosure proceedings could prolong the housing bust well beyond its fifth year--and spell deep trouble for the broader economy.

   The broader economy's already in recovery mode and it'll soon be galloping along like a stallion despite the stumbling banks, the struggling homeowners, and the snarky foreclosure proceedings. America's like an engine that might sputter every now and then because of overheating but once it's been sufficiently cooled and lubricated, it's going to purr like a kitty kat. Yeah, I believe in America and the resourcefulness of our citizens and workers. Watch with me and see how the economy rebounds in the next few years. When the country is basking once again in the spotlight, we'll reminesce about how awful 2008-2010 was. When it's 2015 and the economy's hotter than the Alabama sun at noon, I'll probably be preparing for the next bust because by then, the engine that is America will be reaching for another critical temperature event.

Midnight grocery runs capture economic desperation

   An AP story that's being flashed on the usual news carriers today reveals the hard times that Americans have found themselves immersed in. From the article:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9IMAS8G1.htm
FREDRICKSBURG, Va. (AP) -- Once a month, just after midnight, the beeping checkout scanners at a Walmart just off Interstate 95 come alive in a chorus of financial desperation.
Here and at grocery stores across the country, the chimes come just after food stamps and other monthly government benefits drop into the accounts of shoppers who have been rationing things like milk, ground beef and toilet paper and can finally stock up again.
Shoppers mill around the store after 11 p.m., killing time until their accounts are replenished. When midnight strikes, they rush for the checkout counter.
"The kids are sleeping, so we go do what we've gotta do. Money is tight," Martin Young said as he and his wife pushed two carts piled high with ground beef, toilet paper and other items.
The couple said they need food-stamp benefits, which are electronically deposited onto debit cards, because his job as a restaurant server doesn't quite cover expenses for their five children.
"We try to get here between 10:30 and 11 because we know we've got a lot of stuff to get. That way by 12 o'clock we're at the line cashing out and done," he said.

   I knew things were bad but didn't know they were this shitty. Here we are in 2010 with iPods, iPads, blazing fast internet, and the Hubble Telescope peering into the universe above our heads and Americans are waiting around in supermarkets like a 2010 version of Communist Russia? The debit cards have replaced the ration tickets but the gist is the same. It brings a tear to my eye when society never seems to evolve in a continual path but devolves and evolves in cycles. Two steps forward and one step back is how the world works and it's a damn shame.  
  

10 Reasons To Buy a Home - WSJ

   Man, this one's a doozy from Brett Arends for the Wall Street Journal. And I quote:

"Brett Arends explains why owning a home is a good thing.
Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership.
Sure, maybe there's more pain to come in the housing market. But when Time magazine starts running covers that declare "Owning a home may no longer make economic sense," it's time to say: Enough is enough. This is what "capitulation" looks like. Everyone has given up."
Link: http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/110685/10-reasons-to-buy-a-home?mod=realestate-buy

  Brett, you done got facked up again. Anyone who's seen True Romance knows that line. Yeah Brett, you're grasping at straws when you try to make a convincing argument that it's alright to buy a home right now. Pointing to a magazine cover as a contrary indicator stopped working during the crash of 2008-2009. Magazine cover after magazine cover decried the health of the market before the first crash in late 2008. You know what those contrarian magazine covers did? Nothing. The market continued crashing and crashed again in March of 2009.

   I'm going to go through Brett's ten reasons why it's good to buy a home now and smash them to pieces:

1. You can get a good deal
   Hey, I can get a good deal on a house. Let me take out a $380,000 mortgage from banks that won't approve my application because I don't have a job. Good one, Brett.

2. Mortgages are cheap
   Shut up. Get out of here!? Morgages are cheap? Holy shit, now I can run out and get myself a house.

3. You'll save on taxes
   This one is so stupid that I'm not going to bother humiliating him.

4. It'll be yours
   Will it still "be yours" after it's foreclosed on?

5. You'll get a better home
   This guy is a genius. By genius, I mean idiot.

6. It offers some inflation protection
   People aren't worried about inflation when they're on unemployment.

7. It's risk capital
   WTF is he smoking? No, I don't want any of it.

8. It's forced savings
   Um, what savings? "Hey Marge, let's put some money from the unemployment check into our savings instead of buying food for the kids."

9. There is a lot to choose from
   This guy has a knack for stating the obvious. I hope he's not getting paid for that article because he has to be writing for free. You know the phrase, "Beating a dead horse" right? I don't want to beat Brett anymore.

10. Sooner or later, the market will clear
   Thanks Brett. You're like Nostradamus with your pronouncement that the market will clear. Will it clear in time for people who just bought homes and lost their jobs to pay the mortgage?

   I will now read all of Brett's future articles in the WSJ with a jaundiced eye and a suspicion that he's got a screw or two loose. Those screws lost their threads and are spinning.