Monday, November 22, 2010

Economists see 'sub-par' growth ahead - CNN

http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/22/news/economy/NABE_November_economic_outlook/index.htm?hpt=T2
   The economy will remain sluggish early next year as the lingering effects of the recession continue to drag on growth and the benefit of government stimulus fades, a panel of professional forecasters said Monday. In its November outlook, the National Association for Business Economics predicts that the U.S. economy will grow 2.7% this year. That's a slight improvement from the October survey, but is a far cry from the 3.2% rate the survey had projected in May.

   You know what a "professional forecaster" is? A dumbass. Imagine your job title is "professional forecaster" and your job is to attempt to look into the future by using past and current data/trends to divine what's going to happen. Now imagine that you're wrong most of the time and yet you still have a job? You're not only a dumbass but a lucky dumbass. Despite all the folly associated with forecasters, they serve a necessary purpose in society - they provide headlines and crunch data which is meaningless.

   Now, you're probably thinking, how does crunching meaningless data serve a purpose in society? Meaningless data holds meaning for the uneducated, the headline glancers, and the masses. You ever hear on the radio that a study somewhere recommended drinking at least one cup of coffee a day? Most people listen to that and think coffee is good and drink it. They never follow up on the study, research the study themselves, or look into it further. The masses receive their information in snippets and headlines and data points. Meaningless data serves to bend opinion and color perspective - so, even if the data is completely wrong and irrational, it has served its purpose if it reaches enough people and affects their thinking.

   My forecast? Economy's going to be booming. Growth is going to be blazing. Good times are ahead but the "professional forecasters" could never see what I see because they're unable to break free from the dogma and reams of useless data that have leashed them to the hydrant marked "Dumbass."

No comments:

Post a Comment